Weekly performance review

Hello everybody,
Seeing that it is a holiday and so a short day in the US, and clearing my week-end of working stuff, here is the weekly performance of ELP in comparison with the S&P 500:

Period	ELP	S&P500
5 days	-2.19% (-$1,534)	1.5%
1 month	-3.99% (-$2,790)	3.5%
3 months	17.02% ($11,914)	9.2%
YTD	36.07% ($25,251)	25.8%
1 year	43.69% ($30,584)	14.9%

Have a nice weekend,
Vlad

Happy Thanksgiving!

Hello everybody,
Did you know that the S&P 500 is a capitalization-weighted index? While the index itself accounts for about 75% of the total US stock market capitalization, within the index, ten biggest companies account for the 21% of the performance of the index, while such household names as Macy's and Under Armor account for only just hundredths of percent.
To beat the performance of the S&P 500 is a dream of most fund managers. Live their dream! Subscribe to ELP and beat the index!
Happy Thanksgiving and have merry holidays,
Cheers, Vlad

Correlation Warren-S&P500?

Nov.26, 2019

Hello everybody,
Quite an interesting study yesterday in MarketWatch by Mark Hulbert. The presidential hopeful Elizabeth Warren calls for a higher taxation of the rich. The rich claim that stocks will tumble in that case. Mark tried to find a correlation between the odds of Ms.Warren becoming President as estimated by participants of the gambling site PredictIt.org and stocks dynamics. Here is the picture.

Well, I am in two minds about that chart. There are in fact negatively correlated areas, which would imply that Ms.Warren is bad for the stock market. On the other hand, both S&P500 and Ms.Warren's odds have risen substantially since January, which would imply the opposite. What do you think?
Meanwhile, the S&P500 again opened with a gap up Monday. If you ask me, it is clearly an exhaustion gap. Stocks are overbought, and a reversal is imminent (just when will it happen and what will be the pretext?). Anyway, we are short, and remain so. 
Cheers, Vlad

Weekly performance review

Hello everybody,
OK, it's Saturday today, time to take a look at the weekly performance. As you see from the table, ELP managed to eke out a profit of 0.73% this past week, but is still in the red for the past 30 days. On the other hand, the more long-term metrics are positive, which is what to be expected. With ELP, you should be prepared to withstand some short-term fluctuations, but in the long run ... Yeah, I know, I know what Mr. Keynes said, in the long run we will all be dead. But ELP's long run isn't that long. ELP is profitable every year (so far). Here is the table.

Period	ELP	S&P500
5 days	0.73% ($508)	-0.33%
1 month	-1.79% (-$1,256)	2.90%
3 months	19.56% ($13,692)	9.24%
YTD	38.26% ($26,785)	24.07%
1 year	64.7% ($45,292)	18.15%

Have a nice weekend,
Vlad

Quiet day

Hello everybody,
There wasn't much of a do yesterday in the markets, it was a quiet day trading. We seem to be stuck with a short position for now. While this is the case, it may be in order to begin to get used to the idea of rolling over to the next front month in futures, which is March of 2020. ELP's rule for rolling over is to do it on the second Thursday or Friday of the expiring month, which is December. This is exactly one week before trading will be shut for the expiring contract.
If we remain in the short position till then, all you need to do is buy one ESZ9 contract, thereby closing out the current short position, and immediately, or preferably simultaneously, sell one ESH0 contract, thus opening a short position in March E-mini S&P500 futures. If you are short MES futures, do the same thing with those futures.
I will remind you about the rollover in good time.
For now, we are short 1 ES and 3 MES on a starting capital of $100,000 (CME Simulated Trading platform). I happen to be a stickler to rules, and I am out there on the Simulated Trading platform to prove the validity of ELP, so I remain in this position as there is no signal to the contrary. But remember, we sold 3 MES contracts to enhance ELP's position in ES, as there was an extra amount of capital. These last two days, the gap formed on Nov.15 was closed, and given this political and economic environment, stocks might go up again. So you could close the MES (in case you are emulating me) with a small profit and sell again higher, or if the index goes lower, remain with a legit short position in ES at any rate.
And who knows - maybe there will be a signal to go long yet.
See more info on ELP Program for S&P500 trading on my website sp500systems.com. 
Cheers,
Vlad    

Closing the gap

Hello everybody,
Yesterday, the S&P500 closed the gap that was formed on Nov.14-15 (see picture),

when the index jumped above the 3,100 mark right from the start. Having done that, the index has, for now, lost the immediate reason to decline, and may quite easily continue its course upwards given any favorable fundamental data.
But this is too little a gain for ELP Program. It is still looking for a bigger move. After all, nobody has yet disproved the need for mean reversion from time to time.
So we continue to stay put (short). For more info on ELP Program, click on my website link in Profile.

Enhancing Sim Trading

Hello guys,
The month of November is gradually drawing to a close, and we are still short 1 E-mini S&P500 waiting for a change in our fortunes. Since CME provides their Simulated Trading platform users with a capital of $100,000 (and our recommended capital is $70,000, as you will remember), I took the chance to enhance our virtual position by selling 3 Micro E-minis on the leftover ($30,000) at 3117.00 - much better than the original trade at 3034.50. That is quite legit under the Program - if you have a capital larger than required, feel free to strengthen the position, but in compliance with the recommended rules. Here, the allowed amount per 1 Micro E-mini is $7,000; 3 contracts fit in easily.
Well, basically we stay put for now.
Bye till tomorrow,
Vlad