Wednesday, January 8, 2020

Surprise!

Hello everybody,
Prices were mostly range-bound yesterday, but S&P500 futures plunged 50-60 points after the day close when it became known that Iran had bombed two US bases in Iraq. Early in the morning President Trump tweeted that "all was well" and there were no casualties among the Americans (one Iraqi officer died), and futures climbed back to approximately where they left off yesterday. To complicate things, a Ukranian plane crashed just having taken off from Teheran, with all people aboard (176) dying in the crash. Besides being an apparent human tragedy, it raises questions as to the safety of Iranian air space and Iran in general; airlines are changing their routes to avoid Iran entirely.
Still, the inertia of the trend and Trump's apparent unwillingness to begin an all-out war with Iran can yet help the S&P500 finally hit our target of 3266, and ELP to take a position (short). For the second day in a row we see a spectacular reversal of an early fall, and this resilience may push the index to yet another record. I recommend that anyone following our recommendations should place a limit sell order at 3266,00 at the start of trading today. I hoped yesterday that world leaders would refrain from surprises; it was a vain hope. Let's hope today that surprises will be positive, for a change.
Good luck,
ELP team

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